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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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